Wanggaard-Lehman Race Could Tip Balance in State Senate

The winner of the Van Wanggaard (R-Racine) and John Lehman (D-Racine) recall race could very well decide the balance in the state Senate.

After Sen. Pam Galloway (R-Wausau) resigned earlier this spring because of family health issues, the Senate was left at 16 each for the Democrats and Republicans and one vacancy. The Democrats really only need to win one recall race to take control of the Senate.

But here in the 21st Senate District, we flip-flop between parties so often that it's really anyone's guess as to who will come out the winner after the polls close on June 5. According to a story in the Wisconsin State Journal, Racine County is nearly 50/50 when it comes to party affiliation and has a history of first electing a Republican (Cathy Stepp in 2002), then a Democrat (Lehman in 2006) and then going back to Republican (Wanggaard in 2010).

Spokespersons from both sides of the aisle think it's going to be a tight race, but they also think they've put in the work to come out the winner.

"We feel we have the momentum going into Tuesday because of the extreme agenda of the Republican party and the overreach," said Ben Wojciechowski of the State Senate Democrat Committee. "This district is always close because citizens are engaged."

Ben Sparks with the state Republican party said they're running the most comprehensive ground game they've ever run because they know voter turnout will be key.

"We have a vast volunteer network in the 21st to identify supporters and get them to the polls on June 5," he said. "It all depends on turnout, but we continue to run an aggressive campaign with thousands of volunteers."

Absentee Voters Matter

Absentee voters will also make a big difference. As of 2 pm Friday, Sturtevant Clerk/Deputy Treasurer Mary Cole had collected in person or mailed 240 absentee ballots. The village has 3,055 registered voters, and Cole said she ordered ballots for 100 percent turnout.

"I think this is going to be as big as a presidential election," she said.

Mount Pleasant Clerk/Treasurer Veronica Rudychev ordered 3,000 absentee ballots and said as of 2:30 pm had only 150 left. The village has 17,457 registered voters, though that number can fluctuate with new registrations or residents have moved away.

"I know by the end of today, we'll have gone through all of them," she said.

Rudychev said she just received today 29 requests for absentee ballots, but said the deadline was yesterday and in any case, she doesn't feel comfortable mailing out any ballots at this late date. What she will do is try and call residents to apprise them of the situation and hope they come in person to vote.

Like Cole, Rudychev ordered ballots for 100 percent turnout, and, after seeing the traffic into Village Hall for absentee ballots is glad she did.

"I think it's going to be steady with few breaks on Tuesday," she said.

What do the Polls Say?

Accurate opinion poll information for the Wanggaard-Lehman race has been frustratingly hard to find. Democratic group Greater Wisconsin was able to forward us a memo from Andrew Myers of Myers Research & Strategic Services, a polling firm contracted by the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee.

According to their survey data, Lehman leads Wanggaard, 51 to 47 percent, but cite a recent Public Policy Polling survey that puts Wanggaard in the lead, 48 to 46 percent. Since both polls are within the margin of error (about 4.9 percent), the numbers really mean the race is a dead heat.

"Regardless of who is right, there is little to no question that this race will come down to the wire," the memo reads.