New Marquette Poll Puts Baldwin and Obama Out Front

Shifts among Independents has support swinging more Democratic than Republican.

The race for Wisconsin's U.S. Senate seat has taken a dramatic turn as Democrat Tammy Baldwin has opened up a 9 percentage point lead over Republican Tommy Thompson, according to a Marquette University Law School poll released Wednesday.

Baldwin, a congresswoman from Madison, is leading the former governor by 50 percent to 41 percent among likely voters. In an August Marquette poll, Thompson led Baldwin 50 percent to 41 percent.

President Barack Obama also widened his lead from a month ago. Obama leads Republican challenger Mitt Romney 54 percent to 40 percent, the largest margin so far in the Marquette polls. In August, Obama led 49 percent to 46 percent.

Professor Charles Franklin, director of the poll, said the biggest shift in the Senate race was among independents.

"Baldwin has picked up a little bit with Democrats, but independents have reversed," Franklin noted. "It's a 50-38 advantage for Baldwin."

A Public Policy Polling poll released Tuesday shows Baldwin leading Thompson by 3 percentage points while a CBS-New York Times poll released Wednesday gives each candidate 47 percent of the vote.

As is the case in the Senate race, independents were the key factor in Obama picking up more support in the latest Marquette poll. In August, 45 percent of independents said they backed the president; in Wednesday's poll, it was 53 percent. 

The school's August poll showed that despite tapping Wisconsin U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan as his running mate, Romney didn't get as big a bump as was expected. Still, results last month showed a tightening race with only about 3 points separating the candidates, making the race a virtual dead heat.

Poll results released this week from other outlets like Public Policy Polling and joint ventures from NBC and the Wall Street Journal and CBS and the New York Times show Obama with a narrow lead over Romney in Wisconsin.

Meanwhile, a Rasmussen Reports poll of 11 swing states — including Wisconsin — shows Romney with a 1-point lead over the president, 47 to 46 percent. In 2008, Rasmussen notes, Obama won these states with a combined margin of 53 to 46 percent.

Public Policy Polling, Franklin said, is conducting a new poll and he expects those results sometime next week.

The Marquette poll was conducted from Sept. 13 to 16. The results on the Senate and presidential races are from the responses of 601 likely voters and  4.1 percent margin of error. 

Baldwin pleased, Thompson dismisses results

After the results of the Marquette poll were released, John Kraus from the Baldwin campaign issued a statement pointing to how working across party lines has clearly helped her move up in the polls:

Four polls released this week show that we are moving in the right direction as the choice for Wisconsin voters has been made clear. Tammy Baldwin has a strong record of fighting for Wisconsin middle class families and small businesses, and she isn’t afraid to take on the big moneyed special interests that have too much power and influence in Washington.  Tommy Thompson has cashed in on his Washington connections with these same Washington special interests and he will continue working for them, not Wisconsin’s middle class.  And unlike Thompson who has vowed to play the same ‘no compromise’ politics that has stood in the way of progress, Tammy will work across party lines to move our economic recovery forward.

Thompson dismissed the MU results based on an oversampling of Democrats:

The Marquette poll clearly oversamples Democrats, giving them a partisan advantage. We do not believe that today's Marquette poll reflects the opinions of Wisconsin voters. They have already attempted to adjust this flawed poll once today, indicating problems in their methodology. We have no doubt that Wisconsin families will see through the lies and demagoguery that Tammy Baldwin and her liberal cronies are using to divert voters' attention away from her failed record. No distortion of the truth or amount of money can cover up the fact that Madison liberal Tammy Baldwin is too extreme for Wisconsin.

The response from Republicans pointed out that Wisconsin is a swing state very much in play. Nicole Tieman, Wisconsin Communications Director for the Republican National Committee, released this statement:

Wisconsin is a crucial swing state that the Obama Campaign is clearly worried about losing. The President turned his back on his most loyal supporters during the recall election, has been absent from the state for over 200 days, and has implemented policies that have made Wisconsinites worse off. Now, after seeing the growing Republican momentum and enthusiastic support for Governor Romney and Congressman Ryan’s plan to strengthen Wisconsin’s small business and middle class families, the President is scrabbling to regain the support he’s lost since the 2008 election.  President Obama’s upcoming visit to Milwaukee, paired with ad buys to be released next week show a President desperate to hang on to a state his campaign once thought was safely in their camp. In November, Wisconsin voters will choose a new direction and prove them wrong.


yomammy September 20, 2012 at 05:31 PM
twist words much?
skinnyDUDE September 20, 2012 at 05:35 PM
Polls always have a liberal thumb on the scale. THOMPSON wins this race 55% to 45 %.
John Feia September 20, 2012 at 08:29 PM
Say what you feel you need to say but I will reference my first hand knowledge and experience as to what this bill would have meant to Vets and what it would have accomplished. Even if what you claim about the bill (your claims not post 2001 Vets see re posted quote below) are true, what are the GOPs plans yo help these Vets? Obstructing anything Obama proposes that could help the economy will not help our Veterans. that is what is happening here. "The organization representing the largest number of post-9/11 veterans, Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans of America, expressed outrage at the outcome, saying the program would have created thousands of jobs." http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/decision2012/vet-jobs-bill-fails-in-senate-caught-in-hill-battle/2012/09/19/9d35a104-0292-11e2-91e7-2962c74e7738_story.html?wprss=rss_politics
Butch September 20, 2012 at 11:33 PM
I'm STILL waiting for the "Significant property tax cut" Thompson promised back in 1986. Said anything to get elected, over and over again.
John Feia September 21, 2012 at 02:58 AM
Apparently Karl Rove lends some credence to this poll with his $900K ad buy for Thompson that was announced today...
Steve ® September 21, 2012 at 05:50 AM
Denise - I will beat this record as long as it doesn't crack in the middle and break. And it hasn't yet. Do you support a "free home rape kit"?
Bren September 21, 2012 at 06:26 AM
Chadwick, I don't share all of my views here, just on certain topics, so it's not possible for you to extrapolate my precise political stripe. I self-identify as independent, and that's enough for me. I don't agree with your views about Obama's handling of the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression, partly because I've studied the economic tides over the past decades and partly because I also monitor Japan's post-earthquake/economic crisis activity. I don't see how our penal system is going to change while privatization of prisons and bright-star thinking like "three strikes" continues. That's something voters need to work on. oak creek, I was describing the majority of people, not Tammy Baldwin. She's a liberal. I'll vote for her because I don't care for Tommy's "consulting" in Washington. Well funded special interests and their highly paid lobbyists and "consultants" are blights to our system of government and representation For the People and By the People.
Steve ® September 21, 2012 at 06:31 AM
you're voting for her because she is a liberal. period.
Bren September 21, 2012 at 06:34 AM
Cow, Ryan/Rand has co-sponsored legislation introducing the sick concept of "forcible rape." Other than statutory rape, are there other types? No. It's misogynistic and sick, because this type of twisted thinking has no place in polite/public discourse. For me, it's the banality of the way it appears that is so unbelievably repellent and offensive--typed up all nice and normal, just another mode of conception. Never mind the black eyes, broken jaws, ribs, fingers, arms, internal bleeding, etc., and complete lack of voluntary participation that distinguish this method, eh? Sickening.
Bren September 21, 2012 at 06:39 AM
I'm voting for her because I respect her more than Tommy the Consultant, and because we need a calm, intelligent foil to Ron "Our Last Shred of Freedom" Johnson, who lovingly and charmingly named his new company PACUR in honor of his wonderful brother-in-law Pat Curler. Wait, he moved to Wisconsin two years later than the company started--eh? Anyway. One ignorant Tea/GOP in the U.S. Senate is too much. Two would be intolerable.
Bren September 21, 2012 at 06:42 AM
Sage counsel as always, Mr. Ruble. Thank you.
CowDung September 21, 2012 at 02:17 PM
Bren: What exactly did this legislation consist of that introduced the concept of "forcible rape"? They aren't seeking to make rape legal or even an acceptable practice...
Greg September 21, 2012 at 04:23 PM
Ineptocracy (in-ep-toc'-ra-cy) A system of government where the least capable to lead are elected by the least capable of producing, and where the members of society least likely to sustain themselves or succeed, are rewarded with goods and services paid for by the confiscated wealth of a diminishing number of producers.
Steve ® September 21, 2012 at 04:31 PM
You're voting for her because she is a far left liberal. Stop lying to yourself.
Steve ® September 21, 2012 at 04:32 PM
I herd the leaves are changing and that Mitt Romney is rich. The leaves are changing because he is rich.
Steve ® September 21, 2012 at 04:33 PM
Vote for Tammy then. She likes tax increases.
FreeThought Troy September 21, 2012 at 04:44 PM
Feudalocracy: the system of society where the most priveliged hoard more and more money, control and power to themselves with no regard to their fellow countrymen/women leaving the rest in an increasing state of servitute and serfdom.
H.E. Pennypacker September 21, 2012 at 04:46 PM
NoThoughtTroy, Get off of your oversized rear end and try to accumulate wealth through hard work instead of trying to steal it like your Dear Leader, Baracka Hussein Obama, hmm hmmm hmmm.
GD Freethinker September 21, 2012 at 05:26 PM
Dead on, FT Troy!
GD Freethinker September 21, 2012 at 05:34 PM
One step closer to bringing Wisconsin back to the inclusive, progressive state it once was and will be again. We're taking our state back!
FreeThought Troy September 21, 2012 at 05:37 PM
It's official, HE I will now consider every insult you give me a compliment. You so crazy that if it makes you agry, it must be a rational thought
morninmist September 21, 2012 at 05:55 PM
Mitt's mouthpiece has spoken!! Sununu to Tommy Thompson: Stop blaming Mitt Romney http://tpm.ly/QrO8A4
morninmist September 21, 2012 at 06:07 PM
The TeaRepublicans favor the Rass polls. Here is a new one for you. Z.L.S. ‏@ZLS_Politics A New Rasmussen Poll on the Wisconsin Senate race gives Tammy Baldwin (D) 49%, Tommy Thompson (R) 46%. http://tinyurl.com/6vl97qu #WISEN
tom munson September 21, 2012 at 07:01 PM
What a FAULTY POLL. The poll sampled 51% Democrats and only 40% Republican. The State has a mix of 38% Democrat and 34% Republican. Professor Charles Franklin, director of the poll, says nothing about this at all. Of course the results would be Skewed. Why Mr Franklin did you not talk about this? This poll is WORTHLESS
Carolo September 22, 2012 at 04:17 AM
Good luck Tammy. Now if we could get Ryan to loose his congressional seat, maybe he will stop trying to turn Medicare into a voucher system and stop trying to privatize social security. Very important to our seniors as well as those middle aged people who may have to care for their parents or get stuck with a nursing home bill.
morninmist September 23, 2012 at 08:13 PM
Maybe this poll will suit you better?? I love it. Black Chuck Todd ‏@BlackChuckTodd Obama Pulling Away in Gallup. Approval Rating Crosses Magical 51 Percent. Delicious! http://www.gallup.com/poll/113980/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Job-Approval.aspx?utm_source=add_this&utm_medium=addthis.com&utm_campaign=sharing#.UF9E-J4DibQ.twitter #tcot #p2
morninmist October 03, 2012 at 06:32 PM
Meanwhile, smart Wisconsinites are turning to Obama's health plan--.
morninmist October 03, 2012 at 07:37 PM
John Kane ‏@Tortured_Verse RT @dane101: @MULawPoll: Wisconsin women prefer Obama 61-36. Wisconsin men prefer Romney 49-44. #wiunion #p2
morninmist October 03, 2012 at 07:43 PM
And a few weeks later-Obama is still the man for smart Wisconsinites! @lluttig TPM2012 Poll: Obama Still Holds A Double-Digit Lead In Wisconsin #wiunion #wipolitics #2012 http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/10/poll-obama-lead-wisconsin.php?ref=fpnewsfeed
Jim Bob October 03, 2012 at 08:12 PM
Gearhead, do you just recopy this same comment every week the Marquette polls come out? Looks like you only have four more weeks to keep fooling yourself.


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