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How Mitt Romney Lost Wisconsin After Scott Walker Won

Just five months after Republican Gov. Scott Walker handily won his recall election, GOP nominee Mitt Romney didn't have the same success in the presidential race.

It's a lost prize that stings for Republicans: How could Mitt Romney lose Wisconsin just five months after Gov. Scott Walker won it?

While nationally Romney barely surpassed GOP nominee John McCain's popular vote total in 2008 (58.6 million votes for Romney vs 58.3 million for McCain), in Wisconsin, the former Massachusetts governor surged past McCain by about 11 percentage points.

Romney had more votes than McCain in the bright red suburban Milwaukee counties. He even gained votes in dark-blue Milwaukee and Dane counties.

Meanwhile, President Barack Obama didn't perform as well as he did in Wisconsin in 2008 — his vote total was 4.4 percentage points less Tuesday than it was in 2008.

But statewide, neither Romney's gains nor Obama's losses were deep enough to change the outcome of the election.

And when you compare it to the vote count in the June gubernatorial recall election, Obama significantly outperformed Democrat Tom Barrett, while Romney only did slightly better than Walker.

The question of how Romney lost will be analyzed for months and years to come by political pundits and the media, but here are some reasons, according to an analysis by Patch and an interview with Charles Franklin, director of the Marquette University Law School poll:

Romney didn't make enough gains over Walker: Although about a half million more residents voted for president than did in the June gubernatorial recall election, Romney only received about 73,000 more votes than Walker.

Walker received about 1.34 million votes in June. This week, Romney got about 1.41 million and Obama about 1.611 million.

Take Waukesha County, for example. Walker won the county by 45 percentage points, outpolling Tom Barrett there by about 96,000 votes. Romney won Waukesha County by 35 percentage points, beating Obama by about 84,000 votes.

Contrast that with Milwaukee County: Despite his statewide win, Walker lost that deep-blue county to Barrett by 27 percentage points, or about 107,000 votes. But Romney did worse than Walker in Milwaukee County, losing to Obama by 34 percentage points, or about 167,000 votes.

Even in counties that were red, they weren't red enough: Larger, northern counties - such as Brown and Marathon - went for Romney, but not by enough gains to deliver fatal blows to Obama.

"You didn't see big Romney wins, you just saw minimal wins," Franklin said. "The Obama campaign benefited from that by not having big net Republican votes there that they had to then make up somewhere else. Instead, they could get along pretty well."

Walker won Brown County, 60 percent to 40 percent in June; Romney just barely won it - 50.4 percent to 48.6 percent over Obama. In Marathon County,  Romney won it 52.5 to 46.4 over Obama, with about 4,000 more votes than Obama. But in June, Marathon County voters gave Walker nearly 15,000 more votes than they gave Barrett.

"You have got to be awfully happy to only lose by 4,000 in a county that was lost by 15,000 by your party in an election just five months ago," Franklin said.

Many northern and western counties swung from Walker to Obama: Counties that had a history of voting Democratic, including re-electing Jim Doyle as governor in 2006, suddenly swung hard red, voting for Walker over Barrett, and Republican Ron Johnson over Democrat Russ Feingold for U.S. Senate in 2010, and again for Walker in the June recall, Franklin said.

"If you look at the map today, there are still several red counties in that (northern and western side) region, but they're not that many and there are many blue counties," he said.

"The Obama people seemed to do relatively well by holding down their losses in some Republican areas and doing better in the west and the north than Barrett in either 2010 or the recall," Franklin said.

Obama's lead over McCain in 2008 was too steep to reverse: In 2008 Obama crushed McCain by 14 points, about 415,000 votes.

In Tuesday's election, Romney surged ahead of McCain, adding about 11 percentage points or more than 149,600 votes in Wisconsin. At the same time, Obama lost ground, ratcheting down his 2008 total by about 74,000 votes - or 4.4 percentage points.

Even that combination just wasn't enough.

Vote totals in key counties in recent elections


'08 presidential race Gubernatorial recall '12 presidential race County Obama (D) McCain (R) Barrett (D) Walker (R) Obama (D) Romney (R) Milwaukee      319,819      149,445 250,476 143455      320,654      153,635 Dane      205,984        73,065 176,407 77,595      215,389        83,459 Ozaukee        20,579        32,172 14,095 34,303        19,075        35,991 Waukesha        85,339      145,152 58,234 154,316        77,617      161,567 Washington        25,719        47,729 16,634 52,306        23,136        54,709 Racine        53,408        45,954 40,287 45,526        52,887        49,173 6-county total
     710,848      493,517      556,133      507,501      708,758      538,534 Source: Wisconsin Government Accountability Board; Associated Press

B. Guenther November 13, 2012 at 09:38 PM
Those portions that were overturned were not because the Act 10 was illegal. Those portions were overturned...get this...because those portions were not fair to non-union workers.
morninmist November 14, 2012 at 05:32 PM
The TeaGOP gets nuttier every day. Can the US cut taxes and balance the budget by letting the red states secede? Interesting story wapo.st/ZKaUZx via @Jane_WI The Confederacy of Takers By Dana Milbank, Nov 14, 2012 12:10 AM EST The Washington Post Published: November 13 President Obama’s opponents have unwittingly come up with a brilliant plan to avoid the “fiscal cliff.” They want to secede from the union. ...Red states receive, on average, far more from the federal government in expenditures than they pay in taxes. The balance is the opposite in blue states. The secession petitions, therefore, give the opportunity to create what would be, in a fiscal sense, a far more perfect union.... Yet would-be rebels from the red states should keep in mind during the coming budget battle that those who are most ardent about cutting government spending tend to come from parts of the country that most rely on it.
morninmist November 14, 2012 at 06:00 PM
TeaGOP nuttiness!---WI style! http://thepoliticalenvironment.blogspot.com/2012/11/nine-wisconsin-goptea-party-legislators.html November 13, 2012 Nine Wisconsin GOP/Tea Party Legislators Go Over The Cliff ... The call by nine Wisconsin legislators for the arrest of federal government officials if they implement the health-care marketplace "exchange" designed to help Wisconsin residents find health insurance is nothing short of a mass Thelma-and-Louise-or-Jonestown political move: Rep. Chris Kapenga (R-Delafield) is one of the nine from Wisconsin who told the Campaign for Liberty he would back legislation to arrest federal officials who took steps to implement Obamacare in Wisconsin. He said he believes the health care law is unconstitutional, despite the U.S. Supreme Court's ruling that the passes constitutional muster.... In addition to Kapenga, those listed as supporting the Campaign for Liberty's positions are Sen. Mary Lazich of New Berlin; .....It's one thing to grieve the outcome of an election. It's another to way overstep your role, the federal system, and the Constitution - - and in the process stir up voters and constituencies who look to leaders for good information and rational conduct. ...
bobdole November 18, 2012 at 06:04 AM
Oh Charlie Brown, you're probably an old dude that still reads chain emails.
morninmist November 19, 2012 at 02:57 AM
Fordham Study: Public Policy Polling Deemed Most Accurate National Pollster In 2012 PPP & Daily Kos/SEIU/PPP tie for 1st place in polling. http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/fordham-study-public-policy-polling-deemed-most-accurate

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