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Ryan in Lead and Zerban Gaining, 1st District Polling Shows

Results from polls sponsored by the campaigns show Congressman Paul Ryan in the lead, but challenger Rob Zerban is gaining ground.

If the November election for the First Congressional District were held today, Congressman Paul Ryan would probably win, according to new polling data released this week.

But, the numbers also say Democratic challenger Rob Zerban is gaining ground.

The polls were each commissioned by the Ryan and Zerban campaigns, respectively, and were released a day apart. Links to both polls can be found at wispolitics.com.

From Ryan's camp, Public Opinion Strategies' poll gives Ryan the nod, 58 to 33 percent. The poll was conducted after the Democratic National Convention, on Sept. 9 and 10, of 400 likely voters in the 1st District and has a 4.9 percent margin of error. Almost 70 percent of respondents, though, had never heard of Zerban.

"The poll shows voters in the 1st Congressional District support Congressman Ryan and his efforts to get our nation's debt under control and our economy growing," said Kevin Seifert, a Ryan campaign spokesperson, in an e-mail to Patch.

Zerban's camp sees it a little differently.

"If 68 percent of people haven't heard of Rob, which isn't all that surprising since he isn't the vice presidential nominee, the fact that he gets 33 percent of the vote without putting money into ads really says something," said Karthik Ganapathy, communications director for the Zerban campaign. "We expect that when ads do start airing, that the percentage of people who recognize him will go up and the number of people voting for him will increase as well."

FM3 Research conducted a poll for Zerban and showed the challenger only eight points behind Ryan, 39 to 47 percent, after voters were read a profile statement about him. This poll was conducted before the Repubican National Convention, from August 21-29, of 404 likely voters in the First District and has a 4.9 margin of error.

"Democrat Rob Zerban remains a credible challenger. Following Romney’s choice of Ryan as his running mate and several weeks of extensive local and national media coverage, Ryan is unable to crack the 50 percent threshold," the poll statement reads.

Ryan's campaign pointed out that the incumbent congressman still takes the lead.

"Even when the Zerban campaign used a profile statement to influence respondents' answers, Congressman Ryan still had a commanding lead among 1st district voters," Seifert wrote.

The Capital Times on Tuesday featured an editorial using some polling results as reason enough for Ryan to agree to a debate with Zerban. In part, the newspaper says Zerban is a viable candidate and if Ryan can campaign here for his more high-profile race, then he can find the time for a debate.

"If Ryan has the time to campaign in DePere, he should have the time to debate in Racine or Kenosha or Lake Geneva or Janesville," the editorial reads. "If Ryan cannot find the time to debate Zerban, 1st District voters will have every right to ask whether he has forgotten them in his headlong rush for the national spotlight."

Patch issued on Oct. 25, and so far, only Zerban has said he will attend. An email from Ryan's campaign said we should expect to hear from them soon about the congressman's availability on that date.

JL September 13, 2012 at 07:32 PM
I don't get Ryan, he seems like a nice guy ,but he's going back on all the promises he has made. Clamping down on Medicare and cutting the budget. Now he's getting into the political tv commercials which he's lieing about his record and whats going on in the country. Seems like when you start playing with the big boys in Washington your views are not your views any more and you have to flip to a new position leaving everyone that voted for you out in the wind. So who's doing Ryan's job when hes out trying to get a new one? If he's serious about being VP then he should quit and go for it. Does he think he will have a job if he doesnt get the VP job? He's stepped on a lot of toes here in Wisconsin. Would your boss (us) want you back if you said you were looking for another job?
conservachick September 13, 2012 at 08:21 PM
I will keep pointing out this undeniable fact & would love to hear someone's response to the following. The Progressive Democrats of America have endorsed Zerban. This is in the PDA's platform: "we are in solidarity with the labor, woman’s rights, civil rights, environmental and peace and justice movements of today. We support the right of all people to organize trade unions and bargain collectively." http://www.pdacommunity.org/pda-national/basic-principles Now here is a quote from the CPUSA (Communist Party USA's website under know more about our history: "Founded in 1919, the Communist Party USA has championed the struggles for democracy, labor rights, women’s equality, racial justice and peace for ninety years. The Communist Party has an unparalleled history in the progressive movement of the United States" http://cpusa.org/the-party/
conservachick September 13, 2012 at 08:25 PM
I would also like to point out that I asked for a response on this on Mr. Zerban's FB page awhile back. The only response I received was to be blocked from the page. I can only assume he doesn't want to address this topic.
o 2b incognito September 13, 2012 at 10:06 PM
Of course Mr. Zerban can get 33% without being known. That's approximately how many people will vote for the Democrat candidate, regardless of qualifications. Mr. Zerban is FAR more qualified than Mr. Ryan's last opponent, Mr. Heckenlively. Whlie Mr. Heckenlively is a nice guy, he is not even remotely qualified to serve in congress and he received 30% of the vote.
mau September 13, 2012 at 10:26 PM
Who has been the president for the past 3 1/2 years, while Obama has been campaigning non-stop?
C. Sanders September 13, 2012 at 10:53 PM
Ryan will win, Romney/Ryan will win and Obama can spend the rest of his life working to hone his skills as a lackluster community organizer.
Paula MacIlwaine September 14, 2012 at 12:05 AM
Wisconsin is one of a few States that allows someone to run for two offices at the same time. If Ryan believes in his cause as a candidate for VP he should step aside and let someone run for his congressional seat who puts that Job first.
jack ryan September 14, 2012 at 01:06 AM
Ryan is running a sprint and a Marathon :)
Muskego Mike September 14, 2012 at 02:44 AM
Tammy Baldwin should resign her seat and Tom Barrett should be an ex-mayor twice?
conservachick September 14, 2012 at 12:00 PM
@Muskego Mike - Thank you for pointing out liberal hypocrisy.
Bren September 14, 2012 at 01:10 PM
conservachick, the GOP has been a champion for democracy, environmental protection, and empowerment of people. Does that make them communists too? I'm sorry, but I think the far-right fringe needs to get a better grip on what Socialism and Communism are. Obama's been accused of both, neither are true, but it's sort of funny to see.
Bren September 14, 2012 at 01:12 PM
I don't have an issue with him running for both offices, it's not unusual. Ryan's atheist idol Ayn Rand wouldn't have an issue either, she'd call it "rational self interest."
Mike in OC September 14, 2012 at 02:58 PM
No chance Ryan would lose this election....
Randyd September 14, 2012 at 05:45 PM
To bad Ryan is so dishonest !
FreeThought Troy September 14, 2012 at 08:05 PM
I just have to know... Conservative Christians, isn't it exhausting to be the perpetual victims ALL THE TIME??? I mean, never mind the fact that your influence is at an all time high. It still isn't good enough, is it? What will this contry have to do, become a theocracy like in the time of the Judges? Will you be satisfied, then? Is it a return to the Dark Ages? Christian sects can't find a way to get along with each other. Is that what it'll be - Protestants v. Catholics as in Ireland? Our founding fathers seperated church and state for a reason. They were smart enough to want no part of the endless religious strife that was England. Yet here we are, Congressman Ryan, some how the vicitm of the Secular Socialists who DARE call him out when he lies! Don't "Christians" have a problem with lying? Why are the "amoral" secularists the only ones who seem to care about these things. And yes, we hold the President accountable, too. I can see how that would be tough to see through the tears of some imagined slight to your mythological way of life. How on earth would you spend your time if you got everything you wanted?
o 2b incognito September 14, 2012 at 09:44 PM
Too bad he isn't.
Beatrice Mooney September 15, 2012 at 09:35 PM
Social responsibility is not Communism. Paul Ryan is Catholic; leaders in the Catholic church have publicly spoken out against Ryan's proposed cuts to social services as needlessly harmful to those who have no voice.
John Wilson September 15, 2012 at 11:05 PM
JL - Lyin' Ryan has ALWAYS played with the BIG BOYS in Washington and he has always played with them from deep in the catacombs of D. C. where he read all about the debunked old Austrian Economists who firmly believe 2 + 2 = 5 Trillion. He was so enthralled by their antiquated economic theories that he made them his own… then brought them forward to his other uncomprehending congressmen/women, and, as they could not understand his pedantic ramblings – rather than admit that they were confused – they called him a courageous genius, a creative thinker, an neo-neo-republican… Now, running with the charismatic, “Job Creature” Mr. Robot, Willard, and actually having been designated as the INTELLECTUAL HEAD OF THE REPUBLICAN PARTY, we are now seeing Lyin’ Ryan in a BIG POND and not the TINY DISH in D. C. or the little hamlet of Janesville. Consequently, in the BIG POND, the preppy, lying, baby-faced boy, who doesn’t know up from down is not doing so well. In fact, with all his hand-thumb maneuvers, waving of arms, gratuitous smiles and jumping up and down, as if he was performing his P30X exercises, he looks more like Barney Fief on the Andy Griffith Show! There are some folks who were meant to be BIG FISH in a TINY DISH; these folks ultimately self-destruct in the BIG POND… Lyin' Ryan should not have a problem hanging onto his seat in congress from the 1st. District... after all, he lied his way in for 14 years and the Republican Party LOVES… liars!
John Wilson September 15, 2012 at 11:32 PM
conservachick - Well, I am shocked, shocked I tell you! That a political party would actually steal the thunder [i.e. broad topics] of the Democrats, the GOP, the Socialists or any other party and incorporate them into their own party is just a bridge too far! I am sure this has never happened before in the entire history of humankind! You are absolutely correct in asking for an explanation from the PDA’s Party Platform! Please keep up your efforts to get to the very essence of this un-American conspiracy! Who would want to work for: Labor Rights Woman’s Rights Civil Rights A clean environment Justice Trade Unions – that made America what it is today Collective Bargaining – that created the middle class that built America These are some fairly frightening – to huge corporations and misogynists – and totally un-American ideas and they must be squash immediately! I’m right behind you conservachick, on this one: I’m the guy with the white coat, the bottle of MEDS, a large syringe and a huge butterfly net…
John Wilson September 16, 2012 at 12:17 AM
Paula Macllwaine – I’m sorry, Paula, but you just don’t understand; Ryan has exactly the same BELIEFS as Willard: NONE…
Bye Bye Romney September 16, 2012 at 03:13 PM
Sheldon Adelson, Romney's uber-billionaire casino owner and financial backer, pledged to give Romney $100 million -- or "whatever it takes" -- to defeat Obama. Do you know why??? As Bill Clinton reminded us, sometimes the answer is as simple as arithmetic. So let's do the math: According to a new report from the Center for American Progress Action Fund, Adelson will get $2 billion in tax savings from Romney in return for his support. And it will be paid for by every taxpayer reading this blog, so pass the word QUICKLY. If Obama wins, everyone pays their fair share of taxes...including Mr. Adelson! Tell me... WHICH ONE IS MORE FAIR FOR AMERICAN FAMILIES? WHICH ONE CAN YOU AFFORD? Americans cannot afford to live the Romney-Ryan lifestyle without having the same personal wealth. We can DREAM...but we know that it's not reality. Ryan and Romney are still dreaming.
The Anti-Alinsky September 16, 2012 at 04:13 PM
Bren, Paul Ryan is wanting to create JOBS which in turn will get people off unemployment and welfare which will reduce out burden on social services spending. Yes...it's that simple. How is it beneficial to keep people unproductive and on a handout that barely gives them a place to stay and food to eat? WE NEED TO GET PEOPLE BACK TO WORK!!! Remember Work to Welfare. Seemed like a great idea at the time, but when you have a government willing to hand out exception after exception, it just reverts back to it's old form. The problem is that the day is coming when we simply will have no money to pay for those services. It is getting here sooner rather than later, and Conservatives like Paul Ryan will not be to blame! John Wilson, I don't even know where to begin. You seem to be taking Saul Alinsky's (no relation) Rule number 5 to the extreme: “Ridicule is man’s most potent weapon.” There is no defense. It’s irrational. It’s infuriating. It also works as a key pressure point to force the enemy into concessions. You have gone waaaaaaay off the deep end. Please seek some help and come back when you have come back down to earth.
Joseph Robert September 17, 2012 at 12:37 PM
Foreign Policy Achievements of the Candidates President Obama: • Killed Osama Bin Laden • Ended Iraq War • Killed more Al Qaeda leaders than any other President • Supported "Arab Spring" uprising Romney • None Romney and Ryan: NO foreign policy experience in a very DANGEROUS world!
Douglas Tielbur September 18, 2012 at 03:07 AM
It's obvious by the poll numbers that Ryan has been a liability to the Romney campaign from the beginning and has swayed alot of the independents to Obama's side. This will reflect on his image in WI.
morninmist September 19, 2012 at 11:43 PM
Yah. America United ‏@Progress2day RT @rodeodance: The #lyingRyan effect ha ha Obama Surges In Wisconsin, Leads Romney By 14 http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/09/poll-obama-romney-wisconsin-paul-ryan.php / #WIUnion
Carolo October 01, 2012 at 09:17 PM
I would not vote for the guy that wants to take away Medicare even if I had to vote for a stranger. "Knowing" Ryan is enough.
Keith R. Deschler October 10, 2012 at 11:40 PM
I am Keith Deschler, the Libertarian Party candidate against Ryan and Zerban. I am an advocate of a balanced budget by the end of fiscal year 2013, by making substantial reductions of wasteful spending across the board, replacing the tax code with a national sales tax, ending the wars abroad, restoring civil liberties at home, substantial reforms in entitlements, and returning America to sound money. I will be at the candidate forum sponsored by Patch , on Thursday October 25th, at Racine Gateway. If you want more information about me and my campaign, follow my Facebook group, Keith Deschler for Congress-Libertarian. If you want to vote for a candidate for Congress who is both fiscally responsible and socially tolerant, who wants a balance budget and repayment of our national debt to begin NOW, and not in 2040, please consider me.

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